While the Trump administration has downgraded regime change in its foreign policy agenda, senior officials are continuing to discuss the use of armed force to promote democracy. It’s time to stop this dangerous practice.
Regime change involves removing the government of a nation-state and replacing it with a regime that benefits the outside country, usually in order to spread democracy or advance economic interests. But the vast majority of regime-change policies end up failing in their basic goals. The reason is that to be effective, a government must have the support of or power over its people. Without this, the new regime cannot govern.
What’s more, if the new regime is not democratic, it will almost always become authoritarian. It may also fail to pursue democratic reforms, which could destabilize the region or exacerbate the problem of poverty and inequalities. Even if it does achieve some of its original goals, such as reducing corruption or ending violence against civilians, the regime may be unable to sustain those gains.
In short, the evidence clearly shows that armed regime-change missions seldom succeed as planned. Instead, they often spiral into lengthy institution-building missions that do little to supplant odious governments or further American security and humanitarian goals.
In part, this is because regime-change advocates tend to focus on the desirability of their goals rather than the resources required to implement them. They also ignore the fact that such missions are likely to spiral into costly, extended military operations that require extensive planning.