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Post-Pandemic Geopolitical Dynamics of Southeast Asia

The geopolitical dynamics of Southeast Asia after the COVID-19 pandemic have experienced a significant transformation, with a major impact on relations between countries in this region. In the global context, Southeast Asia is emerging as an arena for strategic competition, especially between major powers such as the US and China. This creates various challenges and opportunities for ASEAN member countries. One important change is the shift in focus of ASEAN countries to strengthen regional cooperation. Initiatives such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) demonstrate the commitment of Southeast Asian countries to increasing economic integration. RCEP, which involves 15 countries, is expected to strengthen supply chains and increase trade in the region, helping post-pandemic economic recovery. On the other hand, China’s rise as a dominant power continues to be in the spotlight. China’s influence in the South China Sea and large investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) pose challenges for ASEAN countries. Some countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, are strengthening their defense ties with the US in response to the threat. This tension has triggered efforts by each country to find a balance in maintaining sovereignty while remaining open to economic cooperation. The pandemic has also changed priorities in foreign policy. ASEAN countries are now focusing more on health and security issues, by increasing public health capacity and cooperation in dealing with the pandemic. ASEAN is also strengthening coordination mechanisms through the ASEAN Covid-19 Response Fund to assist its members in facing health challenges. In addition, there is now increasing attention to climate change and sustainability issues. ASEAN countries are starting to take this issue more seriously, seeking to make environmental policy an integral part of development strategy. Initiatives such as the ASEAN Green Bond Standards are expected to attract investment in sustainable projects and strengthen the region’s resilience to the impacts of climate change. Social tensions are also rising in some countries, prompting anti-government protests and demands for reform. A country like Myanmar, which is facing a political crisis after the coup, is experiencing complex geopolitical dynamics. The varied international response also highlights differences in approaches among ASEAN member states to issues of human rights and political stability. At the social and cultural level, interaction between countries is increasing through digital platforms. The existence of social media and communication applications allows for faster exchange of information, although it also creates challenges in terms of disinformation and polarization. Thus, the geopolitical dynamics of post-pandemic Southeast Asia show a complex picture, where challenges and opportunities are interrelated. Regional cooperation is key in ensuring stability and growth amidst increasingly fierce global competition. The region’s resilience will be tested by the ability of countries to adapt and innovate in dealing with emerging issues.